In which scenario does mark-recapture fail?
High mortality between marking and recapture violates the closure and equal-survival assumptions of the simple Lincoln–Petersen estimator. If marked individuals die disproportionately or many die before mixing, the number of marked recaptures R falls. Because N is estimated as MC/R, an artificially small R inflates the population estimate. Even equal mortality among marked and unmarked animals can undermine the interpretation if population size changes substantially during the interval. A closed population, uniform mixing, and equal marking or capture probabilities support rather than defeat t
Ref: Ecology: Concepts and Applications, Molles, 9th Ed., Ch. 9